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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Appeal for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."