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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround receives the award. However, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or just the most shocking surprise.

However this year's race is profoundly different. The list of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with recent division champions declining and longtime strugglers ascending collectively. Under an normal year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's facing five other outstanding candidates.

This is how the projected ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to spin magic from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal year!

Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. But Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still