Starmer's Allies Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Mayor's Commons Comeback

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Major Obstacles in the Selection Process

Multiple members on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are anxious to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of sources also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.